意大利疫情早過中國?沈旭暉轉載意國醫生電郵 還原真相

國情動向 13:45 2020/03/25

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香港國際關係學者沈旭暉在facebook公開向涉事意大利醫生Giuseppe Remuzzi的書面查詢,他直指醫學論文已說明,病毒首先在武漢出現,它通過中國人接觸德國人、再傳入意大利。

新冠肺炎全球大流行,內地媒體近日流傳一段稱「意大利醫生︰意國疫情早於中國」的消息;許多人以此為證,懷疑新冠病毒不源自中國。但這段消息被指斷章取義,香港國際關係學者沈旭暉在facebook公開向涉事意大利醫生Giuseppe Remuzzi的書面查詢,他直指醫學論文已說明,病毒首先在武漢出現,它通過中國人接觸德國人、再傳入意大利。

Giuseppe Remuzzi的回覆,引證內地媒體曲解他原意,讓外界產生意大利疫情早於中國的錯覺。

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事緣內地自媒體、甚至環球網等主流媒體日前報道,米蘭醫生、馬力奧尼格里(Mario Negri)藥理研究所主任Giuseppe Remuzzi接受美國公共廣播電台(NPR)時說過,意大利早在去年12月甚至11月時,已發生過非常奇怪的肺炎,狀況非常嚴重,特別是老年患者。

內媒及社交媒體瘋傳意國醫生「訪問」

這段消息一度在內地及香港網絡瘋傳,有人以此為理據,指新冠病毒「真的可能不源自中國」。但這段消息,也被質疑為斷章取義,曲解了Giuseppe Remuzzi原話意思。

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沈旭暉在其fb專頁「堅離地城︰沈旭暉國際生活台 Simon's Glos World」發帖指,「一位手足為了求真,專門發電郵向Dr Remuzzi本人詢問,從這位意大利專家的以下回覆,可明確知道他的原意」。

根據英文原文,Giuseppe Remuzzi澄清,根據最近一期《自然醫學》(https︰//doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0820-9)中的一篇文章,有證據反映當前Covid-19(新冠肺炎)來自蝙蝠和穿山甲;武漢市場上有大量使用蝙蝠、穿山甲的商業活動記錄,這裏乎肯定是疫情爆發的來源。

Giuseppe Remuzzi又指,遺傳學已證實,病毒首先在武漢出現,它可能經過一段時間,再由中國向蔓延;它其後通過中國人接觸德國人,再傳播到達意大利。

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Giuseppe Remuzzi強調,懷疑早在10月尾,武漢可能已出現武漢肺炎感染,但中國政府沒有公布,期間可能大量中國人從武漢來到意大利,令意大利出現了一些疑似案例,由於一切來自中國的資訊都不透明,才令疫情失去控制的黃金時機。

事件主角意大利醫生現身:中國資訊不透明

沈旭暉總結,整個信息,和中國媒體說法的完全相反,「fake news之意,莫此為甚」。

事實上,日前已有媒體找回Giuseppe Remuzzi接受美媒訪問的原文,他稱,「他們記得見過十分奇怪的肺炎,十分嚴重,主要在老人身上,在12月以至11月(They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November)。」

意大利醫生原話 被人斷章取義

他續指︰「這意味病毒當時已在傳播,起碼在倫巴底區,在我們發現中國的疫情已爆發前(This means that the virus was circulating, at least in Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China)。」

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綜觀前文後理,Giuseppe Remuzzi是指,意大利雖很早便出現疫情,但當時內地的疫情亦無人知道,故意大利沒有為意,暗示內地當局未有及時公布,令國際社會未能提早防範。

沈旭暉在其fb專頁「堅離地城︰沈旭暉國際生活台 Simon's Glos World」發帖指,「一位手足為了求真,專門發電郵向Dr Remuzzi本人詢問,從這位意大利專家的以下回覆,可明確知道他的原意」。

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本報記者:費風

【新冠肺炎】擴散,緊貼最新疫情影響

跟進【中美角力】新形勢,立即了解

沈旭暉國際生活台 Simon's Glos World引述查詢原文

Dear XXX,

The only thing I said was that some general practitioners candidly told me of having observed a few cases of severe pneumonia already in late November and December, which is not unexpected, since the majority of contagions are coming from asymptomatic people who likely travelled from China before the Chinese authorities communicated that this outbreak had occurred. Attached is my answer to the journalists who have contacted me.

沈旭暉國際生活台 Simon's Glos World引述Giuseppe Remuzzi回覆:

Quoting the answer︰

I repeat, none of these cases have been documented as Covid-19 because there was no evidence yet of the existence of Covid-19.

In any case, we can be certain that the virus emerged in Wuhan first, where it had probably been circulating for some time before it was made public in China, and the genetics confirm this beyond a shadow of a doubt. It arrived in Italy through a German person who had been in contact with a Chinese person, as you can see in the NEJM paper (DOI︰ 10.1056/NEJMc2001468). The strongest evidence of the fact that the current Covid-19 derives from bats and pangolins is reported in an article in Nature Medicine (https︰//doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0820-9) recently published, which shows almost identical sequences. Commercial activities using bats and pangolins are very well documented in Wuhan market, which was almost certainly the source of the outbreak. The question now is for how long the virus was circulating in China before health authorities understood the dimension of the problem. Considering the incubation period, I would not be surprised if asymptomatic individuals had been moving around China and travelling abroad in December and maybe even earlier.

In my opinion, there is no doubt that the virus arrived in Italy from China based on genetic studies just reported in Nature Medicine. However, one has to consider the possibility that, rather understandably, the emergence of this unfortunate event in China probably occurred long before health authorities realised it,considering the number of asymptomatic carriers, which isnow extremely well documented in the paper published in Science (DOI︰10.1126/science.abb3221).

By the way, I think you should probably investigate an event that was organised in Wuhan at the end of October (see attached). We know from the paper published in Science that 80% of contagions occur through people who are asymptomatic; you can imagine how many people arrived in Italy from Wuhan in that precise period of time.
Please see also a statement by Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University and the Lancet paper attached.

Best regards,
Giuseppe Remuzzi

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